Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 32.798911 38.835126 45.416145 53.091935 61.765468 71.229382 82.302257
2025-06-22 23.124216 30.955369 40.307457 52.159326 66.629403 83.568512 104.732355
2025-06-29 18.525431 27.287055 38.501146 53.603370 73.078322 97.000134 128.221669
2025-07-06 13.886793 22.442457 34.138496 50.796626 73.355719 102.254810 141.405678
2025-07-13 11.845880 20.674313 33.407753 52.365189 79.027993 114.287907 163.400044
2025-07-20 10.179257 19.106018 32.639555 53.616222 84.130213 125.623094 184.818779
2025-07-27 8.942511 17.961865 32.275717 55.278874 89.750272 137.773169 207.709346
2025-08-03 7.847799 16.843508 31.762931 56.572374 94.791765 149.231419 230.006410
2025-08-10 6.565222 15.154966 30.096025 55.857155 96.702124 156.226462 246.241632
2025-08-17 5.709179 14.089717 29.307661 56.401075 100.451075 165.922619 266.551189
2025-08-24 4.876584 12.907734 28.152729 56.189654 102.930421 173.763704 284.374340
2025-08-31 4.040316 11.544628 26.484927 54.917636 103.567854 178.779559 298.138903
2025-09-07 3.620250 11.066376 26.516261 56.787521 109.727467 192.937526 326.758027
2025-09-14 2.945182 9.846621 24.958791 55.691460 110.938201 199.584926 344.511821
2025-09-21 2.610403 9.378491 24.841148 57.204468 116.615374 213.438462 373.690589
2025-09-28 1.987496 7.964377 22.507622 54.247398 114.290407 214.324376 382.775171
2025-10-05 1.778488 7.654938 22.542850 55.899822 120.186047 228.744702 413.478873
2025-10-12 1.575176 7.303162 22.426138 57.217392 125.519428 242.406368 443.371577
2025-10-19 1.419488 7.057973 22.523096 58.967978 131.718315 257.709404 476.319806
2025-10-26 1.262828 6.759926 22.445256 60.329507 137.238669 272.035494 508.075051
2025-11-02 1.038628 6.132669 21.435210 59.576713 138.676952 279.411339 528.677334
2025-11-09 0.897246 5.767486 21.049050 60.149218 142.672342 291.306269 557.012454
2025-11-16 0.750403 5.313951 20.345511 59.926693 145.068948 300.454972 580.997606